Punjab: A surprising drop in reported crop residue burning cases in Punjab this paddy harvesting season has raised eyebrows and sparked speculation about whether farmers are outwitting satellite detection methods. While official reports show a significant decrease in fire incidents compared to last year, experts suggest a different reality, hinting at a clever game of “hide-and-seek” between farmers and satellite detection and other devices used to monitor stubble burning.
The reduced number of reported cases initially suggested a positive trend. However, online memes humorously depict farmers using various “jugaad” – innovative workarounds – to avoid detection, leading to questions about the accuracy of current monitoring systems.
One theory suggests farmers are burning residue late in the evening, exploiting a perceived gap in satellite coverage. However, officials involved in data analysis dismiss this as speculation, lacking scientific basis. While anecdotal accounts of such practices exist, they remain unsubstantiated.
The official stance is that the Punjab Remote Sensing Centre utilises images from both ISRO and NASA satellites to track stubble burning. However, a tweet from an aerosol remote sensing scientist at Morgan State University brought this into question, suggesting that localised smoke plumes in the late afternoon might indicate intentional avoidance of satellite overpass times.
Hiren Jethwa, an aerosol remote sensing scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, confirmed these suspicions. He revealed that farmers are indeed burning stubble after 2 pm, a time when NASA satellites have already passed over the region. While geostationary satellites, which capture images every five minutes, confirm this activity, the practice effectively bypasses NASA’s surveillance.
This revelation contradicts the celebratory tone of the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), which praised Punjab for a 71 per cent reduction in cases. Satellite data paints a different picture, with over 7,000 farm fires recorded on a single day last week. Jethwa pointed out the alarming pollution levels in the past two weeks, reaching unprecedented highs, directly linked to post-2 pm stubble burning.
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the phenomenon of thermal inversion, which traps pollutants near the ground, exacerbating air quality issues. The smoke from crop burning, combined with clouds, worsens thermal inversion, further intensifying pollution levels.
The data released by the government shows that the stubble burning incidents in 2022 were 49,922, 71,304 in 2021, 76,590 in 2020, 55,210 in 2019, and 50,590 in 2018. It also showed that the major contributing districts in it were Sangrur, Mansa, Bathinda and Amritsar.
While the government data indicates a significant reduction in farm fires compared to previous years, satellite imagery and expert analysis suggest an alternative narrative. According to the experts, the apparent decrease in burning incidents may be attributed to a strategic timing of activities, rather than an actual reduction.
