Mumbai: As the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly Election approaches, 23 million Mumbaikars will head to the polls across Mumbai City and Mumbai Suburbs, the two districts that house 39 assembly constituencies. From the southernmost point in Colaba to Dahisar in the north, the city’s political future is being shaped by its changing demographics.
While a majority of Mumbai’s population are locals, 43 per cent of residents are immigrants. These immigrants primarily come from rural areas in Maharashtra, but a significant proportion – 41 per cent of immigrants – hail from northern India, particularly Uttar Pradesh. Other immigrants come from Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Bihar.
Historically, the immigrant vote bank politics has played a key role in Mumbai’s elections. Political parties like Shiv Sena, once vocally anti-immigrant, have long capitalised on a narrative targeting outsiders, particularly migrants from UP and Bihar. These immigrants were accused of taking jobs away from local residents, fuelling tensions in the city.
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Politics and Culture in Mumbai
In Mumbai, politics is not confined to government offices or polling booths. The city’s political atmosphere permeates its streets, homes, and workplaces. Over 80 per cent of Mumbaikars are educated and politically aware, with many children aligning themselves with political ideologies from a young age. Women, too, are active participants in the city’s politics, often leading movements or supporting their spouse’s political careers.
The Influence of Bollywood and Cricket
In Mumbai, politics is intertwined with the city’s two great passions – Bollywood and cricket. With Mumbai serving as India’s entertainment hub, politics and film often go hand in hand. Politicians cultivate connections within Bollywood, and political motives frequently influence the industry. Cricket, a national obsession, also finds itself caught in the city’s political web, with politicians taking an active interest in the sport, which generates massive revenues and influence.
Immigrants and the Changing Political Landscape
The city’s once-hostile stance towards immigrants is now being replaced by political pragmatism. As the immigrant population grows, parties that previously opposed their presence are now courting their votes to win elections.
For instance, Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray, who championed Hindutva and railed against outsiders, left a legacy that positioned immigrants as political foes. However, under the leadership of his son, Uddhav Thackeray, the party has shifted. Uddhav sees immigrants as a potential voter base and recently made overtures to politicians from both southern and northern states, signaling a departure from the party’s past.
Political Factions in Mumbai
Mumbai’s political scene is fractured, with Eknath Shinde breaking the party and claiming his faction to be the real Shiv Sena and aligning himself with prominent parties in the city. The original Shiv Sena is now divided into two factions: Shiv Sena (Bow & Arrow) and Shiv Sena (UBT), with the latter sporting a fire torch as its symbol.
Meanwhile, Raj Thackeray, leader of the MNS, faces a dilemma. His party has long promoted an anti-immigrant narrative, focusing on migrants from Uttar Pradesh. However, with elections looming, MNS may need to pivot and appeal to the immigrant vote to stay politically relevant. If MNS joins forces with the BJP-led NDA, Raj will likely have to modify his rhetoric to secure immigrant votes.
The Immigrant Vote Bank: A Key to Victory
As Mumbai’s demographics shift, so must its political leaders. Immigrants, who once abstained from voting in local elections, are increasingly obtaining voter IDs in Mumbai and shaping the political landscape. With immigrant voters becoming a key constituency, political parties are adjusting their strategies to capture this influential vote bank.
The upcoming elections in the city of Mumbai is a test of how well political parties have adapted to the changing demographics of the metropolis. For leaders like Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, success may depend on their ability to balance local and immigrant interests in this politically charged city.
