New Delhi: Despite facing disappointing results in the Lok Sabha election 2024, the BJP went on to achieve a resounding victory in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections, defeating the Congress and other opposition parties to form governments in both states.
A recent Matrize survey has revealed valuable insights into the factors behind the BJP’s success in these states. The survey highlights several elements, such as the enduring influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Congress-led Opposition’s failure to pose an effective challenge, and shifts in voter sentiment between the parliamentary and Assembly elections.
The survey also sheds light on the Congress’ inability to make an impact with its narratives on constitutional changes, farm laws, and other issues. Conducted between 25 November and 14 December 2024, the Matrize Survey involved a substantial sample size of 76,830 participants in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana.
Key findings from the survey
Enduring Popularity of PM Modi
The survey underscores the continued popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a pivotal factor in the BJP’s success. Despite the party securing only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, PM Modi retained his strong appeal among voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana. The survey revealed that 55% of respondents in Maharashtra and 53% in Haryana reported an increase in PM Modi’s popularity since the parliamentary elections. His image as a decisive and influential leader resonated deeply with voters, significantly influencing the Assembly election outcomes.
Setback to Congress’ narrative on the Constitution
The Congress’ narrative surrounding alleged constitutional changes by the Modi government, which gained some traction during the Lok Sabha elections, failed to make an impact in the Assembly elections. The party’s focus on issues such as constitutional amendments, farm laws, and the challenges faced by wrestlers did not resonate with voters in Maharashtra and Haryana. The survey indicates that these topics were not seen as significant concerns in the state elections, further eroding the Congress’ appeal.
Voter perception of Congress leadership
The survey highlights a significant lack of trust in the Congress leadership, particularly its de facto leader Rahul Gandhi. Voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana expressed doubts about Rahul Gandhi’s ability to provide a credible alternative to PM Modi. He was widely perceived as disconnected from grassroots realities, which stood in stark contrast to PM Modi’s image as a strong and decisive leader. This disconnect played a critical role in the BJP’s commanding victory, as voters gravitated towards a leader they believed could deliver results.
Shift in voter sentiment between elections
A notable finding of the Matrize Survey is the shift in voter sentiment between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Many voters who had chosen not to support the BJP during the parliamentary polls appeared to reconsider their decision in the state elections. This shift was attributed to increased confidence in PM Modi’s leadership and the central government’s policies, which voters felt had positively impacted their lives. The inability of the Opposition to present a compelling alternative further solidified voter support for the BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana.
BJP’s strategic messaging and leadership
The BJP’s messaging during the Assembly elections proved highly effective, according to the survey. The party’s slogan, “Ek Hain to Safe Hain” (When united, we are safe), resonated with voters in both states, emphasising themes of stability, national security, and economic progress under PM Modi’s leadership. In contrast, the Congress’ rhetoric was perceived as divisive, with internal factionalism further weakening its appeal. The BJP’s cohesive narrative and strategic communication played a key role in consolidating voter support.
Impact of local leadership and organisational strategy
In Haryana, a change in BJP’s local leadership, including replacing former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with new faces, contributed significantly to the party’s success. The survey found that 44% of respondents acknowledged the positive impact of this leadership shift. Additionally, the presence of strong local BJP leaders and a well-organised election campaign in both states helped the party build a solid base of support. The Congress, on the other hand, struggled with internal disarray and failed to present a unified front.
Role of government schemes and welfare initiatives
The BJP’s focus on local issues and welfare schemes emerged as another decisive factor in its victory. Initiatives in agriculture, infrastructure development, and rural welfare were particularly well-received by voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana. These schemes were seen as delivering tangible benefits, strengthening public trust in the BJP’s governance model.
