The Centre for Policy and Governance Studies at NMIT, Bengaluru and Lokniti-CSDS, undertook a post poll study of the trends in the Channapatna by poll. Spread across 20 polling stations in the Assembly constituency (selected by the process of systematic random sampling) at least 25 respondents drawn from the voters list (by means of systematic random sampling) were interviewed, resulting in a representative sample of 502. A structured questionnaire was administered to the respondents through a face-to-face interview.
The intensity of the contest was evident from the fact that a little over one-fourth (27 %) of the sample were reluctant to disclose their voting choice. Among those who declared their voting choice, the Congress had an eleven-percentage point lead over the JDS candidate representing the NDA (42 to 31 %). What is critical to note is that those who did not declare their vote preference could well have been decisive.
When asked whether the absence of an alliance (between BJP and JDS) would have made a difference in the way they voted, the number who declined to indicate their preference declined by half (from 27 to 13%). The gap between the support for Congress and the BJP and JDS (taken together) remained at eleven percentage points. The Congress was favoured by 49%, the BJP by 8% and the JDS by 30%. It needs to be stressed that the 13% who kept their preference close to their chest could well change the differences in these numbers.
A proxy battle
What is clear is that the voters in the constituency see the poll as a proxy battle between Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shiva Kumar. Close to two thirds (63%) respondents saw it as a proxy electoral battle and two of every ten (22%) did not see it as a proxy battle with another one-sixth being undecided (15%).
When deciding whom to vote for did party, candidate or leadership make a difference? Four of every ten (41%) focused on the party while a little over one third (35%) mentioned the candidate. One fourth felt that the leadership was crucial to their decision (24%).
The Vokkaliga respondents were close to half the sample (48%). Among them one fourth (24%) stated that they voted for the Congress. A little over half from among Vokkaligas (51%) indicated that they voted for the JDS (NDA) candidate. A little over one-fourth (25%) were unwilling to disclose their preference. Those who declined to disclose held the key.
The Congress appeared to do better among the non Vokkaliga OBC voters as well as among the Scheduled Castes and Muslims. Among young voters, JDS had a slight edge while among the middle aged the Congress was ahead. The support of the older voters was evenly distributed.
Clearly, a tight race in Channapatna.
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