The upcoming BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, 2024, may serve as the stage for a pivotal meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The two leaders have not spoken directly since the deadly Galwan Valley clash in 2020, which severely strained India-China relations. Diplomatic activity in recent months suggests that both nations might be ready to take steps toward mending ties, with Russia potentially playing a mediating role.
Galwan Clash: A Lingering Diplomatic Freeze
The border skirmish in Galwan Valley, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unspecified highly number of Chinese troops, brought relations between India and China to a near-standstill. Since then, despite multiple rounds of military and diplomatic talks, Modi and Xi have not engaged in direct talks, reflecting the deep mistrust between the two countries.
The unresolved tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have cast a long shadow over any efforts at normalization. However, the upcoming BRICS Summit could break this prolonged silence, opening the door for meaningful dialogue.
Doval-Wang Yi Talks: A Glimmer of Hope
India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s recent meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during the BRICS security conference in Saint Petersburg on 12th September is seen as a step toward addressing these lingering tensions. During the talks, Doval highlighted the importance of peace along the LAC, emphasizing that normal bilateral relations cannot be restored without disengagement and stability in the border areas. Wang Yi responded positively, calling for enhanced strategic trust and a focus on cooperation.
This high-level meeting indicates a mutual willingness to resolve the border standoff, even as the broader relationship remains fraught with challenges. The Doval-Wang Yi talks could be seen as setting the stage for a potential Modi-Xi meeting, with both sides recognizing the need for direct engagement to ease tensions.
Jaishankar-Wang Yi Meeting: Laying the Groundwork
Adding further momentum to these diplomatic efforts, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with Wang Yi on July 25, 2024, in Vientiane, Lao PDR, during ASEAN-related meetings. Their discussions centered on resolving the remaining issues along the LAC and stabilizing bilateral relations. Jaishankar emphasized the importance of “mutual respect, mutual interest, and mutual sensitivity” in rebuilding trust between the two nations. Both sides agreed that achieving complete disengagement at the border was critical to restoring normalcy.
This meeting followed a similar dialogue between the two in Astana earlier in July, underscoring the urgency of addressing the border dispute ahead of the BRICS Summit. Together with Doval’s talks, these engagements suggest a concerted diplomatic push to create the right conditions for a Modi-Xi dialogue in Kazan.
Russia’s Role: A Potential Mediator
Russia, as the host of the BRICS Summit, could play a crucial role in facilitating this potential meeting between Modi and Xi. Russia maintains strong ties with both India and China and has historically positioned itself as a neutral party capable of mediating between the two Asian giants. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who shares a close rapport with both leaders, may use the summit as an opportunity to foster dialogue between India and China, emphasizing the importance of regional stability and cooperation within the BRICS framework.
Russia’s interest in normalizing relations between India and China is driven by its geopolitical priorities. As tensions between Moscow and the West continue, Russia is eager to strengthen the BRICS alliance, and a rapprochement between India and China would only enhance the group’s unity and global standing. By offering a neutral platform for dialogue, Russia could be instrumental in brokering a deal that paves the way for greater cooperation between its two largest BRICS partners.
BRICS Summit: A Chance for a Diplomatic Breakthrough
The Kazan BRICS Summit represents a unique opportunity for India and China to reset their relationship. The summit, which marks the first after BRICS expansion, offers an ideal platform for Modi and Xi to address critical issues such as border security, economic collaboration, and regional stability. If a meeting takes place, it would be the first direct talks between the two leaders since 2020 and could signal a significant shift in their bilateral ties.
Diplomatic efforts over the past months, including Doval and Jaishankar’s meetings with Wang Yi, reflect a growing recognition of the need to address the border dispute and rebuild trust. Russia’s potential role as a mediator further strengthens the possibility of a breakthrough, as Moscow has a vested interest in fostering stability within the BRICS bloc.
