New Delhi: The Israel-Hamas war has been ongoing for over a year now and any chances of a ceasefire do not look likely. Fears are only being aggravated now as chances of the war escalating seem imminent. This comes after Israel, for the first time in the current iteration of the conflict, directly engaged in an attack against Iran.
Israel struck military sites in Iran early on Saturday in retaliation to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel earlier this month, the latest chapter of escalations in this never-ending conflict. Iranian media reported multiple explosions over several hours in the capital and at nearby military bases. Subsequent to this, Israeli public broadcasters also reported of three waves of strikes being carried out. “In response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel – right now the Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” Israel’s military said in a statement announcing the attack.
Iran for now in its official statements has minimised the extent of the attack, saying that its air defence system countered Israeli attacks on its military targets in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, with only “limited damage” to some locations.
Unceasing escalations
The attack by Israel on Iran comes at a time when tensions in the Middle East are already heightened. Especially after the ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on October 1 where Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel, the responsibility for which was taken by The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The retaliation of the Iranian attack was feared for some time now and it has finally come. This means fears of a renewed round of escalations are imminent and attempts at a ceasefire are at the movement practically impossible. Much to the chagrin of the international community, the war is now only set to enter a new chapter.
Old-standing tensions between Israel and Iran have reignited since the Hamas attack on Israel. While Iran had been antagonising Israel through its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah for the longest, direct engagement now may have dire consequences for the whole region.
It may now turn into a cycle of attack and retributions, which with time can engulf the whole region. “If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond,” the Israeli military said after the attack.
The fact that the targets in Iran did not include energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities is the only part which may not help minimise a return attack. This was reportedly done by Israel on the urging of the US who were against attacking the country’s nuclear or energy infrastructure as that could mean that the chances of an all-out war were even more pronounced.
This can be looked at as at least an attempt to contain the escalation by the Israeli side. They had to carry out an attack to avenge Iran’s missile barrage earlier this month but they are still mindful of the extent to which they want to engage in an offensive with Iran. The ball is now in the court of the Iranian leadership and how they choose to return fire. That would decide how far the conflict would stretch and how intense the offensive would be. How this would then affect the larger region and the US, who principally backs Israel, remains to be seen.
The chances of a ceasefire though are now for all purposes non-existent. The closest to a ceasefire situation occurred when the chances of a US backed deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar. The deal was not successful, mainly due to the contentious issue of the hostage situation. Attempts from other international organisations like the United Nations have also not worked and they now seem to be more distant.
Whatever may occur now, for both Iran and Israel the situation is unprecedented. Since the Iran-Iraq war, this is the first time it has seen a direct attack on its territory. Leadership of both Israel and Iran are in a dilemma, they have had to attack back on the other’s offensives while being mindful of others players in the mix and public sentiments in their own country. The war which started when a group of Hamas militants entered into Israel and fired on citizens today is the closest we have ever been to a direct full-blown war between Israel and Iran.
