New Delhi: With the US Presidential elections set to be conducted on November 5, excitement around the event is building. With months of rigorous campaigning from both the Democratic Party’s Kamala Harris and Republican Party’s Donald Trump, the first phase of the much-awaited elections started when millions of voters across the US cast their ballots by absentee or early in-person voting.
This practice of early voting is prevalent in the US but not in all the states, this elections for example 47 states have early voting. New Hampshire, Alabama and Mississippi do not have early voting. Reportedly around 55 million Americans have already cast their ballots at this point in the election.
Early trends never decisive
While early voting is important, their impact on elections varies election to election. This year many in the US have shown a propensity to indulge in early voting. According to Ann Jacobs, the state elections commissioner in Wisconsin, more than 97,000 voted the first day of early, in-person voting in the state, which is an “unheard of” level of early turnout.
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Various early polling trends are currently suggesting that Kamala Harris is considerably ahead among those who have already voted either through absentee, mail-in or in-person ballots. Recent national polling from ABC News/Ipsos says that Harris is leading Trump by 62 per cent to 33 per cent, the New York Times/Sienna College puts the number at about 62 per cent to 33 per cent for a Harris lead and CNN shows that Harris is leading Trump by 61 per cent to 36 per cent. According to these reports, the only state where Trump is leading by 6 points is the state of Nevada.
This though is in no way conclusive. One aspect in which the Democrats are rejoicing is that according to current statistics early voting has been done by way more women than by men. This is seen as favourable to Kamala Harris even though it is not sure if those voters are Republican or Democratic.
These early trends are despite Donald Trump’s boasts of an “unprecedented” lead in early voting. Nonetheless all is not lost for Trump and these numbers are not conclusive and should not be seen as conclusive of a Harris lead. The Trump camp also can rejoice from a few aspects of the early vote.
In 2020, Donald Trump was vocally against the system of early voting and dissuaded his voter base against their use. This time around he has changed his stance and Republican voters have also come out in large numbers to cast early votes. According to CNN for example, in Pennsylvania, the registered Republicans make up about 32 per cent of the early vote this year, an increase from 21 per cent during the last elections. This time around rural voters also make up a much larger proportion of the early vote than during the last elections, and this can play well for Trump in states like Georgia and Virginia.
Many of the conclusions about early voting are being drawn based on the demographic data alone but this time and again have proved inconclusive. While partisans on both sides would like to claim a lead, only after the results will the true picture of early voting’s impact form.
