American University historian Allan Lichtman, dubbed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the presidential election, has predicted that the Democrat candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge the winner in 2024
On the other hand, another high-profile American election forecaster Nate Silver has said Kamala can’t trump Donald.
In this high-octane battle of soothsayers, Americans are divided like never before.
So what is on the cards for Kamala and Donald?
To begin with, let us get to know the American political scientists turn jyotishis.
According to the New York Post, Dr. Allan Lichtman—a registered Democrat—has a near-perfect record of predicting elections, as he has accurately predicted nine out of the last ten results.
What is the basis of Lichtman’s predictions?
He has evolved his own formula on the basis of parameters, or keys, as he calls it on which Presidential candidates measure up. As per Lichtman, Kamala outscores Trump on these.
The parameters include
1. Is the party in the White House facing a primary?
2. If there’s a third-party contestant?
3. The state of the short-term economy
4. The state of the long-term economy
5. Has the sitting president’s party has made adjustments to national policy?
6. Whether there’s social unrest?
7. Has the president faced major scandals
8. The charisma of the challenger
He says Kamala has the aforementioned eight keys going for her.
Conversely, Donald pips Kamala on three other keys:
Did the sitting president’s party gain seats in the House during the midterms?
Whether the incumbent is running for re-election?
The charisma of the incumbent
Lichtman was one of the few to correctly predict that the Republican presidential hopeful would win in 2016. However, in 2024, his predictions are being squarely challenged by Nate Silver.
Who is Nate Silver?
Silver shot to fame in 2008 after his statistical model accurately predicted the results of 49 out of 50 states’ presidential elections. Since then, the results of the presidential elections in 2012 and 2020 have been anticipated by him.
Writing in the New York Times, the political pundit said that although the race is virtually even, he has a “gut” feeling that Trump will emerge victorious.
How is Silver contradicting Lichtman?
He is questioning the very basis of the keys that Lichtman deploys for his analysis. Silver claims more than 7 keys favour Trump. “Sorry brother, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you’re admitting they’re totally arbitrary?” Silver wrote on social media.
Have their predictions faced criticism?
Yes, his detractors claim Lichtman’s keys often disregard how campaign messaging and significant events alter public opinion in the final stages of an election.
Also, Silver’s critics say he relies too much on polling data, which is inconsistent and subject to error. Silver will be way off the mark if the opinion polls are wrong.
