New Delhi: Polling is underway for 43 seats in the first phase of Jharkhand assembly elections, but not only the change of power but also the trend of over half of the MLAs losing in every election has turned into a political headache for both Chief Minister Hemant Soren and the BJP. Since Jharkhand was created, four assembly elections have been conducted, and the fifth election is currently in progress. The political trends from the elections held between 2005 and 2019 suggest that it has been challenging for incumbent MLAs to secure the second term and be reelected.
In 2000, Jharkhand was formed and since then, its politics has been mired in complexities. In the last 24 years, neither has any party got a clear mandate nor has any government been able to win straight for the second time. It has always been difficult for the Chief Minister helming the state to save his seat. Leaders who have held the Chief Minister post in Jharkhand have often suffered defeat. In the four assembly elections held since the state’s creation, over 50 per cent of the MLAs have lost their seats. If this trend continues in the upcoming election, it could substantially change the political game of power in the state.
45 MLAs lost the 2019 elections
In 2019, out of 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand, only 36 MLAs secured victory and reached the assembly again while 45 MLAs suffered a loss. Hence, 56 per cent of the incumbent MLAs had to face defeat and 44 per cent were successful in reaching the assembly again. A total of 12 out of 37 BJP MLAs, 13 out of 19 JMM MLAs, 1 out of 8 JVM MLAs, 3 out of 6 Congress MLAs and seven other MLAs switched sides and emerged victorious. In this way, in the last election, the most sitting BJP MLAs had to face defeat.
55 MLAs lost the elections in 2014
In the 2014 Jharkhand assembly elections, only 26 out of 81 incumbent MLAs were able to keep their seats intact. In this way, 55 MLAs had to suffer loss. In the elections held 10 years ago, 68 per cent MLAs had lost and 32 per cent MLAs were able to win. A total of 10 out of 18 BJP MLAs, 7 out of 18 JMM MLAs, 3 out of 5 AJSU MLAs and one other MLA succeeded in saving their seats. Eight BJP MLAs, 11 JMM MLAs and all 5 RJD MLAs had to face defeat.
Most MLAs lost in 2009
In the 2009 assembly elections, out of 81 MLAs in Jharkhand, only 20 MLAs were able to keep their seats and 61 sitting MLAs lost. Thus, 75 per cent MLAs could not save their seats and only 25 per cent MLAs won. Five out of 17 JMM MLAs, 4 out of 30 BJP MLAs, 2 out of 9 Congress MLAs, 1 out of 7 RJD MLAs, 2 out of 2 AJSU MLAs, 1 out of 1 CPI-ML MLA and one other party MLA were able to retain their seats. In 2009, BJP suffered the biggest jolt. In the 2009 elections, a record number of MLAs lost in Jharkhand history.
50 MLAs lost the election in 2005
Jharkhand was created in 2000, but the first election after the formation of the state was held in 2005. In these polls, 50 sitting MLAs had to suffer defeat and only 31 MLAs could save their seats. So, 62 per cent of the incumbent MLAs had to face defeat in 2005 while only 38 per cent MLAs succeeded in reaching the assembly. In 2005, 13 out of 32 BJP MLAs, 6 out of 12 JMM MLAs, 4 out of 11 Congress MLAs, 3 out of 8 JDU MLAs, 2 out of 9 RJD MLAs were able to win. Besides this, one AJSU MLA and one independent MLA were able to reatin their seats.
Political trend of MLAs losing elections
This trend of over half of the sitting MLAs losing elections in Jharkhand has raised worry for CM Hemant Soren as well as other political parties. On analysing the defeat of the current MLAs in the last four elections, it can be found that both the ruling party and the opposition have faced defeat. This reflects that there is an anti-incumbency wave against the government as well as the current MLAs. As the voters vent their ire against the government and the current MLAs, the government changes and so do the current MLAs.
