New Delhi: US elections are always high-stake and dramatic (mostly the latter). Don’t expect any less this year, as Trump and Harris inch towards what could be a photo finish with swing states again poised to play kingmaker. Although there is much being said about the grand comeback of the Democrats riding high on Kamala Harris’s gender and mixed ethnicity after Joe Biden was forced to withdraw from the race owing to his ill health, the verdict still hangs in balance. First, Trump is known to spring up surprises (recall the events of 2016?) second, he has the support of most global leaders who may have an influence on the outcome of the US elections. Third, it’s not over until it’s over for Harris.
There are a few hours to go for the elections still but the question of who will be elected as POTUS is hanging like the Damocles sword on rest of the world. There is some scepticism that Harris may not be the ideal woman for the job, especially because her foreign policy decisions and POV has lacked that spark of brilliance. Most people are of the opinion that Harris is yet to come out of the shadows of Biden.
Trump, on the other hand, doesn’t exude the same confidence that he had before the COVID-19 pandemic had hit and he was in office. A lot of things have changed rapidly and the world is not as rosy as it used to be back when Trump was in power. With different permutations and combinations of power dynamics being played out every day, and conflicts breaking out in every part of the world (East and West Asia, Africa, and even South America), who out of the two hopefuls can bring in the much needed hope factor?
Analysts say, neither.
Strife ridden world and Trump: Match made in hell
Trump’s foreign policy is a big question mark today. Sure he has made some friends, but the former president has also made as many foes (or maybe more). Most of this is because of his inflammatory statements that are always drawing ire for being racist or regressive in nature. Even this poll season witnessed Trump’s motor mouth follies with campaign speeches circling around Haitian migrants in Ohio and callous comments on how they eat dog meat!
The foreign policy of the United States during the presidency tenure of Trump (2017–2021) was laced with unpredictability. It was characterised by actions that reeked of a tendency to backtrack on previous international commitments. Trump challenged diplomatic norms, escalated political and economic brinkmanship with various adversaries, while simultaneously reinforced bonds with traditional allies.
No wonder diplomats had started calling his tenure as the “season of fear” and his approach to the US foreign policy as “isolationist or internationalist”. A media outlet also went on to state that, “Trumpism alludes to ambiguity and uncertainty and does not have a common or standard definition. In fact, unlike most of his predecessors, Trump is a president with no prior political or military experience. His strong affiliation with the world of money and media has had a tangible impact on his understanding of the world. The president’s world-view is transactional and business-oriented (Stephens).”
Trump’s unsophisticated worldview has also come under the scanner many times with people believing that his foreign policy (or lack of it) was the prime reason for his unpopularity globally which eventually also led to his downfall.
What does the Harris report card say on matters regarding foreign affairs? Again, analysts show very little confidence in her dealings with ROW. First they find her perspective wanting in several aspects. Second, it is believed that in order to be populist, Harris’s world view is skewed towards adversaries without considering the allies. In the world order that is emerging today, will such a strategy pay rich dividends? One doesn’t think so.
Harris’ foreign policy is also not commendable
Now, talking about Kamala Harris, the democrat nominee, even her lack of experience on foreign policy matters has been heavily scrutinised. People who have supported Harris feel the criticism is unfair because no vice president of the United States has had the privilege of having a take on foreign policy of their own. It is also possible that we don’t know the personal take of the VP which may have happened within closed doors.
Having said that, it will be interesting to see how well Harris be able to handle the conflict between Israel, Gaza, and now Lebanon. Her stance towards Iran has not been crystal clear either and that will be one of her biggest battles. To identify whether she wants to deviate from Biden’s foreign policy with respect to creating more allies and being closer to adversaries or will Harris prefer a more enigmatic role as POTUS? Her take on protectionist trade will also be watched closely if she goes on to win the elections.
The China question
What will really be put to test is the US relations and political dynamics with China. It has been claimed that the US has not been able to plug the gaps in Asia leading China hogging the limelight in the region. The Biden administration, however, had a different way of dealing with the China question. One that he said was as progressive as it was beneficial. The democrats had imposed tariffs on China with the intent to protect US jobs and industry. Would Harris continue with this trend or will she be more lenient with China?
When it comes to Trump, one is not sure whether he would be confrontational with China by defending Taiwan militarily. Even in the Middle East, Trump may adopt a more challenging and confrontation tone with Iran at the same time being more supportive of Israel.
While America will vote tomorrow, it is the world that will be waiting because POTUS could have an influence on each and every country in the world. How the President will progress in his tenure is a question for the later, but for now, both Harris and Trump may not be the ideal choice for the changing world order.
