After the announcement of an agreement to reduce tensions on the Line of Actual Control, in a major development Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold bilateral talks in Russia on Wednesday. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed this on Tuesday. The two leaders will hold bilateral talks after nearly five years.
This move comes after India’s announcement that the two countries have reached an agreement to resolve the issues that arose in 2020 and reduce tensions. When it comes to geopolitical positioning, India’s policy is clear that we are not against any country, there should be an inclusive environment at the international level and all countries should follow the established rules.
Thus the bilateral talks between PM Modi and President Xi assume significance in light of India’s global standing. The meeting is happening at a time when the expansion of BRICS is seen as very important for the changing geo-politics and global order, but whether the group will be able to expand or not is up to India to decide.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other BRICS leaders aim to use the expansion of the organization to promote multilateralism and support more equitable development around the world. This move reflects the changing world order, which includes various crises and the evolving balance of power.
India aims to prioritise economic aspirations, support for global governance reform and non-hostility among BRICS nations while keeping an eye on geopolitical tensions. It is also seeing the strong ties between China and Pakistan as China seeks to include Pakistan in the organisation to further increase its dominance in the group, but India would never want this.
It may be noted that among all the big global powers, India has the capability to balance China due to its geographic location and its military strength. According to Stimson, in the Chinese assessment, the United States, Japan, and Australia are all seen as relying on India to a certain extent to build pressure on China in the Indian Ocean, causing a disadvantageous two-front conflict situation for Beijing. Additionally, now China has realised that India is a “key variable” which would determine the success or failure of the Indo-Pacific strategy as “without India, there is no Indo-Pacific.”
Thus this bilateral meeting which is happening after almost five years is important for both countries as India and China are huge markets from the trade point of view. In such a situation, if the relations between the two countries improve, then there can be a big benefit in the field of trade and investment. This can also increase employment opportunities in both the countries and accelerate economic development. At present, India has a high trade deficit with China. If relations improve, this imbalance can be reduced and India can export more of its products to China.
Moreover, over the past decade, even Beijing has realised how crucial India’s cooperation is to pursue China’s strategic objectives in South Asia. Political experts argue that India’s strategic position in South Asia, due to its central geography and strong ties with global powers like the US, Japan, and Russia, makes it key to regional connectivity. Therefore, for China, cooperation with India through global organisations like BRICS, SAARC, SCO etc is seen as a practical route to advance its initiatives like the BRI etc.
Here it may be noted that even Chinese scholar Zheng Yongnian lamented the lack of recognition in China that the Beijing-New Delhi relationship would become the most important relationship after the Beijing-Washington relationship. He argued that India’s rise is not necessarily detrimental to China’s interest as this would prevent further polarization of the world and ease the pressure on China. If China managed its relationship with India well, New Delhi would never fully invest in the United States, just like it never fully invested in the Soviet Union. Regarding why China needs India, Yongnian argues that if China-India ties are impaired beyond repair, India alone or in association with other countries could cause endless trouble for China in the future.
