BJP projected to win Karnataka, shows new poll
If Assembly elections were held in Karnataka today, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would return to power with a clear majority, according to a new survey conducted by Hyderabad-based People’s Pulse Political Research Organisation in collaboration with Codemo Technologies.
The survey predicted that the BJP could secure 136 to 159 seats out of 224, marking its first full-majority government in the state. In contrast, the ruling Congress is projected to win between 62 and 82 seats, while the Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] is forecast to shrink to just 3 to 6 seats.
Anti-incumbency hurts Congress, but Siddaramaiah remains popular
Despite governance concerns and rising public dissatisfaction, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah continues to top the popularity charts. The survey revealed that 29.2 per cent of respondents preferred him for the top post, with Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar following at 10.7 per cent. No BJP leader crossed the 10 per cent mark individually, though 16.9 per cent of respondents said they would back “any BJP candidate.”
Among BJP names, BS Yediyurappa (5.5 per cent), BY Vijayendra (5.2 per cent), and Basavaraj Bommai (3.6 per cent) registered modest support. The survey pointed to the BJP’s internal groupism and lack of a clear chief ministerial face as limiting factors in its public appeal.
JD(S) slips as Karnataka politics turns bipolar
JD(S), once a key player in Karnataka politics, appears to be losing relevance. Its predicted vote share has plunged to 5 per cent from 18.3 per cent in 2023. The data suggests a clear shift towards a bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress, sidelining regional alternatives.
Caste census views split across party lines
The survey also assessed public perception regarding key schemes, major public issues, and the recently conducted Social and Educational Survey, popularly referred to as the caste census. The data revealed that 42.3 per cent of respondents trusted the caste census findings (26.3 per cent fully and 16 per cent partially), while 35 per cent expressed distrust and 22.7 per cent admitted they were unaware of the report.
Interestingly, the survey found stronger support for the caste census among Congress voters compared to BJP supporters.
Demographic divides in CM preferences
Siddaramaiah leads preferences across most social groups, age brackets, genders, and regions. Kuruba, Nayak/Naik, Valmiki, and Madiga communities back him strongly. However, Vokkaligas and Vishwakarma prefer Kumaraswamy, while Lingayats favour Vijayendra.
The Congress, despite Siddaramaiah’s personal popularity, is struggling with internal factionalism, particularly between its top two leaders, which is said to be weakening its electoral prospects.
Survey methodology
The month-long, state-wide, extensive survey, carried out between April 17 and May 18, was jointly conducted by People’s Pulse Political Research Organisation and Codemo Technologies. The survey gathered insights from 10,481 respondents across Karnataka’s rural and urban regions. This extensive exercise was designed to gauge public sentiment on a broad range of political and governance-related topics.
Participants were asked to respond to 10 carefully framed questions covering areas such as Party Real Vote Share Analysis, Party Perception Vote Share Analysis, Chief Minister and Prime Minister Choice Analyses, and ratings of both the state and central governments — absolute and relative.
