New Delhi: India is set to experience another unusually warm December, continuing a trend of abnormally high temperatures. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal temperatures across most of the country, following a November that ranked as the third warmest in 123 years, behind only 1979 and 2023. This follows a similarly warm October, making 2024 likely the warmest year globally.
Temperatures in the national capital are already higher than average, with daytime highs around 24-28°C and nighttime lows of 10-13°C. The IMD’s winter outlook predicts above-normal temperatures for most of India throughout the winter season (December-February), with the exception potentially being the southern peninsula.
IMD chief Dr M Mohapatra highlighted a high probability of higher temperatures, particularly in the core-cold zone encompassing the plains of Northwest and Central India. He also noted an expectation of fewer cold wave days than usual. Regions typically experiencing harsh winters, such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, usually see cold waves lasting 5-6 days but are projected to experience significantly less this year. “There is a high probability of higher temperatures this season, especially in the core-cold zone, including plains of Northwest India and Central India. The number of cold wave days is also expected to be below normal,” said the IMD chief.
The exceptionally warm temperatures in Northwest India are attributed to a lack of rainfall and minimal impact from western disturbances. The region recorded a significant rainfall deficit, nearly 54.5% for all of India in November, with Northwest India experiencing an even larger shortfall at -79%. This dryness, coupled with the absence of significant western disturbances affecting the plains, resulted in a 1.37°C rise in monthly mean temperatures in Northwest India. Dr Mohapatra noted a long-term trend of decreased above-normal rainfall in November since 2001, attributing this to a reduction in western disturbances.
The number of cyclonic disturbances in the adjoining seas was also lower than usual. While November typically sees a high number, this year only two low-pressure systems formed over the Bay of Bengal, with one intensifying into Cyclone Fengal which brought heavy rains to Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The IMD forecasts continued good rains in the southern peninsula this month due to an active northeast monsoon.
“The long-term data suggests that the number of years with above-normal rains in November has declined substantially after 2001. There is a trend for reduced rains in this month somehow. This year too, we saw almost no western disturbances over the plains,” he added.
Uncertainty remains regarding the onset of La Niña, with sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remaining near-normal. While global models predict a higher chance of La Niña developing early next year, their accuracy remains questionable, as La Niña typically brings colder conditions to India.
