New Delhi: The Indus Waters Treaty, a remarkable agreement signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, has long been considered a testament to international cooperation amidst persistent conflict. Mediated by the World Bank, the treaty meticulously divided the Indus River system, allocating the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan.
This division addressed crucial water resource management issues that arose after the partition of 1947, averting potential conflicts over this vital resource. The treaty’s success lies in its ability to withstand numerous periods of intense hostility, including the 1965 and 1971 wars, and the Kargil conflict. The uninterrupted flow of water, despite political tensions, is a striking example of diplomacy overcoming adversity.
Pahalgam Attack and its implications for Indus Waters Treaty
However, the recent Pahalgam terror attack has cast a long shadow over the treaty’s future. India has openly blamed Pakistan-based terrorist groups for the attack, and the Indian government has indicated a potential review of all agreements with Pakistan, including the Indus Waters Treaty. This raises profound concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for a humanitarian crisis.
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Potential consequences of treaty disruption
Pakistan’s near-total reliance on the Indus River system for its agriculture, which provides sustenance for a significant portion of its population, makes it particularly vulnerable to any disruption in water flow. Approximately 80 per cent of Pakistan’s agricultural output depends on the Indus, impacting vital crops like wheat, cotton, and sugarcane. Any significant alteration to the water flow, whether through diversion, reservoir construction, or delays during critical farming seasons, could trigger widespread food insecurity, economic collapse in rural areas, and even internal unrest.
Pakistan’s response has been swift and significant. The closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian airlines signals the gravity of the situation and underscores the high stakes involved. Furthermore, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s warning to India highlights the growing tension. The future of the Indus Waters Treaty remains highly uncertain, presenting a significant challenge to regional stability and potentially impacting millions of lives dependent on the Indus River.
