New Delhi: As Donald Trump is set to return to the White House, questions are emerging about how a Trump 2.0 administration might influence India-US relations. Trump, a former US President and now a candidate, said that he intends to reshape US foreign policy, focusing heavily on his “America First” principles. Earlier, Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar said that the US could lean towards a more isolationist approach, regardless of whether Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency.
During Trump’s first term, he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a strong rapport, showcased at major events like “Howdy, Modi!” in Texas and “Namaste Trump” in India. This friendship became a symbol of strengthened India-US relations, which extended across areas like trade, immigration, defence and diplomatic engagement.
Trade ties: A mixed bag for India
Trump’s foreign policy approach centres on prioritising US interests, often leading to changes in international agreements. During his first presidency, Trump pulled US out of several global pacts, such as Paris Climate Accord and Iran nuclear deal, in pursuit of policies he believed best served America. As Trump is set to return to power, India-US trade relations may face similar challenges.
Trump had previously said that India imposes high tariffs on foreign products and has vowed to implement a “reciprocal tax” if elected again. Last month, Trump said, “India is a very big charger of tariffs. We have a great relationship with India and with Prime Minister Modi, but they probably charge as much.” This could impact key Indian industries, such as IT, pharmaceuticals and textiles, which rely heavily on the US market.
At the same time, Trump’s aim to decouple from China presents an opening for India. If the US seeks to move supply chains away from China, India could emerge as an attractive alternative manufacturing hub for American businesses, as reported by NDTV.
Immigration: Challenges for Indian workers
Trump’s stance on immigration has been a central issue, particularly regarding the H-1B visa program, which enables highly skilled foreign workers, including many from India, to work in the US. During his first term, Trump’s administration tried to increase wage requirements for H-1B visa holders and added restrictions, making it harder for Indian tech professionals to work in the US. If Trump reintroduces these policies, it could pose difficulties for Indian workers and affect tech firms that rely on this skilled talent pool.
Jaishankar had acknowledged that immigration could be a tricky point in India-US relations under Trump. While Trump has spoken positively about India, he remains firm on issues like trade and immigration, which could bring complex negotiations.
Military cooperation
Defence cooperation between India and the US has strengthened in the last few years, with landmark initiatives like Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and defence deals, including the GE-HAL agreement for jet engine manufacturing. Under President Joe Biden, these partnerships have deepened to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. If Trump returns to office, he might take a more cautious approach to military alliances, similar to his views on NATO. However, India-US defence cooperation could still thrive due to shared strategic interests in Asia.
Trump’s first term also saw the elevation of the Quad alliance – an informal security partnership between the US, India, Japan, and Australia aimed at countering China’s influence. In a second Trump presidency, the Quad could see further growth, with joint military exercises, defence equipment sales and technology sharing likely to continue.
Counterterrorism: Shared goals
In the realm of counterterrorism, Trump’s “Peace through Strength” approach may align well with India’s security needs. India has long sought a tougher US stance on Pakistan, particularly regarding cross-border terrorism.
Under Trump’s previous administration, India found a supportive ally in addressing regional security threats. Trump 2.0 administration could further align US and Indian interests in fighting terrorism, especially as both countries seek to curb militant activities in South Asia, as reported by NDTV.
