New Delhi: At 9.15am, with less than 2% of votes counted, the early trends showed the BJP leading on 42 seats, AAP on 26, and Congress on 2. Reacting to these initial numbers, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah posted on social media platform X, saying, “Aur lado aapas mein!!!”
His remark meant that if Congress and AAP had formed an alliance instead of competing against each other, the results could have been different, and in the end it would have been the case. However, even Abdullah might not have anticipated the final outcome and Congress’s imprint on AAP’s loss. BJP won 48 of the 70 seats, while AAP was reduced to 22, and Congress failed to win a single seat.
The role of Congress in AAP’s defeat
Congress ended up hurting AAP’s chances in multiple constituencies. In at least 13 of the 48 seats won by the BJP, the Congress candidate polled more votes than the BJP’s margin of victory over AAP. This suggests that a Congress-AAP alliance could have altered the results significantly.
A simple analysis shows that a combined AAP-Congress front could have won 35 of the 70 seats, leaving the BJP with the same number. This would have led to a much closer contest, where even a marginal shift in votes could have resulted in an INDIA bloc victory in the national capital. However, it remains uncertain whether all Congress votes would have transferred to AAP and vice versa.
Key seats where Congress split the opposition vote
Two seats that will particularly trouble AAP are New Delhi and Jangpura. Arvind Kejriwal lost the New Delhi seat to BJP’s Parvesh Verma by 4,089 votes, while Congress’s Sandeep Dikshit secured 4,568 votes. In Jangpura, Manish Sisodia lost by just 675 votes, with Congress’s Farhad Suri polling 7,350 votes, potentially costing Sisodia the seat.
| Constituency | BJP Candidate | BJP Votes | AAP Candidate | AAP Votes | Congress Candidate | Congress Votes | Winning Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NANGLOI JAT | MANOJ KUMAR SHOKEEN | 75,272 | RAGHUVINDER SHOKEEN | 49,021 | ROHIT CHOUDHARY | 43,244 | 26,251 |
| MADIPUR | KAILASH GANGWAL | 52,019 | RAKHI BIRLA | 41,120 | J P PANWAR | 17,958 | 10,899 |
| RAJINDER NAGAR | UMANG BAJAJ | 46,671 | DURGESH PATHAK | 45,440 | VINEET YADAV | 4,015 | 1,231 |
| NEW DELHI | PARVESH SAHIB SINGH | 30,088 | ARVIND KEJRIWAL | 25,999 | SANDEEP DIKSHIT | 4,568 | 4,089 |
| JANGPURA | TARVINDER SINGH MARWAH | 38,859 | MANISH SISODIA | 38,184 | FARHAD SURI | 7,350 | 675 |
| KASTURBA NAGAR | NEERAJ BASOYA | 38,067 | RAMESH PAHELWAN | 18,617 | ABHISHEK DUTT | 27,019 | 11,048 |
| MALVIYA NAGAR | SATISH UPADHYAY | 39,564 | SOMNATH BHARTI | 37,433 | JITENDER KUMAR KOCHAR | 6,770 | 2,131 |
| MEHRAULI | GAJENDER SINGH YADAV | 48,349 | MAHENDER CHAUDHARY | 46,567 | PUSHPA SINGH | 9,338 | 1,782 |
| CHHATARPUR | KARTAR SINGH TANWAR | 80,469 | BRAHM SINGH TANWAR | 74,230 | RAJENDER SINGH TANWAR | 6,601 | 6,239 |
| SANGAM VIHAR | CHANDAN KUMAR CHOUDHARY | 54,049 | DINESH MOHANIYA | 53,705 | HARSH CHOUDHARY | 15,863 | 344 |
| GREATER KAILASH | SHIKHA ROY | 49,594 | SAURABH BHARADWAJ | 46,406 | GARVIT SINGHVI | 6,711 | 3,188 |
| TRILOKPURI | RAVI KANT | 58,217 | ANJANA PARCHA | 57,825 | AMARDEEP | 6,147 | 392 |
| BADLI | AAHIR DEEPAK CHAUDHARYY | 61,192 | AJESH YADAV | 46,029 | DEVENDER YADAV | 41,071 | 15,163 |
Congress’s strategy against AAP
The lack of an alliance with Congress, combined with Congress’s aggressive campaigning, played a major role in AAP’s defeat. In previous elections, AAP’s rise had significantly diminished Congress’s presence in Delhi. This time, Congress leaders sensed growing discontent against AAP and decided to capitalise on it.
During the initial and final phase of the campaign, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra launched sharp attacks on AAP. Meanwhile, Congress claimed that AAP was unwilling to form an alliance, pointing to the fact that Kejriwal had announced all 70 candidates even before the Election Commission announcing the dates for the polls.
Historically, AAP’s emergence in Delhi has been closely linked to Congress’s decline. In 2013, AAP won 28 seats with a 29.49% vote share, reducing Congress from 43 seats to just 8. By 2015, Congress’s vote share had fallen further by 15%, while AAP’s rose by the same margin.
Could an alliance have changed the outcome?
Had Congress and AAP joined forces, they could have strategically challenged the BJP’s dominance. The data suggests that the INDIA bloc had a real chance at victory, but the vote split ensured a BJP win. While it is uncertain whether Congress voters would have fully backed AAP in an alliance, the numbers show that the opposition could have presented a far stronger challenge to the saffron party.
