New Delhi: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, following the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir, represents a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The decision, made during a high-level cabinet meeting, involves reducing the flow of water from the Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Chenab River. Satellite images confirm a significant reduction in water levels near Sialkot, Pakistan. This action has immediate and long-term consequences for Pakistan.
The strategic implications are profound. Retired Major General Dr. Rajan Kochhar, a respected strategic affairs and defence expert, noted the potential for Pakistan to react aggressively. He stressed India’s preparedness for any such response, highlighting the deployment of forces along the border. The decision also underscores India’s resolve in the face of international pressure. Major General Kochhar observed that countries such as the United States and China have not significantly influenced India’s approach. This suggests a strengthening of India’s independent foreign policy.
However, the move presents significant challenges for India. Indefinitely reducing water flow could lead to flooding within India due to insufficient storage capacity. The long-term solution necessitates significant investment in hydroelectric projects and the development of additional reservoirs in Jammu and Kashmir. The government has already sanctioned eight such projects, and accelerating their development is now paramount.
The impact on Pakistan’s economy is equally substantial. Major General Kochhar highlighted the dependence of Pakistan’s economy on agriculture, with approximately 80% of the economy reliant on it. The reduction in water flow will severely impact agricultural output, exacerbating existing economic difficulties. This action also carries significant psychological implications, particularly for the Pakistani army, with a large portion recruited from the affected Punjab province.
The prospects for immediate negotiations between India and Pakistan appear slim. Major General Kochhar emphasised that Pakistan must demonstrate a commitment to ending cross-border terrorism before any meaningful dialogue can commence. He specifically referenced the reported existence of numerous terrorist training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and proposed joint inspections as a necessary step towards establishing trust and confidence. This situation underscores the complex interplay of security, water resource management, and diplomatic relations between the two nations. The future trajectory of this conflict remains uncertain, contingent upon Pakistan’s response and India’s ability to navigate the complex challenges arising from its actions.
