New Delhi: A groundbreaking new climate risk assessment report, a collaborative effort by IIT Guwahati, IIT Mandi, and CSTEP Bengaluru, has revealed a stark reality. According to the report, a significant portion of India’s flood-prone areas are concentrated within just seven regions, six states and one union territory.
The study, supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), utilised the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework to analyse flood and drought risks across 698 districts over 50 years (1970-2019).
The report’s alarming findings highlight that a staggering 85 per cent of India’s districts facing the highest flood risk are located in Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat Odisha, and the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
A total of 169 districts fall into high to very-high flood risk categories, with a concerning 51 facing the most extreme risk. The vulnerability of Assam’s districts is largely attributed to their proximity to the Brahmaputra River, while the densely populated and agriculturally rich districts of the Indo-Gangetic plain (particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal) are highly susceptible to flooding.
The report’s scope extends beyond just flood risk. It reveals that at least 11 districts across Bihar, Kerala, Odisha, Assam, and West Bengal are at high risk of both severe flooding and drought, highlighting the compounding effects of erratic rainfall. These districts, including Patna (Bihar), Alappuzha (Kerala) and several in Assam and West Bengal, face a double threat.
Furthermore, the assessment identified 91 districts in the “very high” drought risk category, spread across several states including Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and many others, revealing a widespread vulnerability to water scarcity.
Professor Devendra Jalihal, director of IIT Guwahati, emphasised the critical dependence of India’s agrarian society on the monsoon, making it acutely vulnerable to climate change’s impacts. “India’s agrarian society is deeply dependent on the monsoon, making the challenges posed by climate change, such as droughts and excessive rainfall, increasingly critical,” she said.
Dr Anita Gupta from the Department of Science and Technology (DST) underscored the report’s importance in identifying and addressing community-level challenges. “This is just the beginning, as India progresses with a balanced adaptation and mitigation strategy to achieve a cleaner, greener, and climate-resilient future,” she said.
The report calls for updating state climate action plans and incorporating actionable insights to build resilience. It also stresses the need to consider social, economic, and political factors, in addition to environmental ones, when developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. “It provides a comprehensive framework for policymakers, enabling them to devise targeted solutions that consider the distinct needs of each region,” said Prof Ravindranath from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru said.
The all-India district-level risk mapping provides a comprehensive framework for policymakers to craft region-specific solutions, ultimately aiming to shield vulnerable communities from the escalating threat of climate change. “While mitigating hazards is crucial in the long run, enhancing adaptive capacity in the short and medium term is vital to shielding communities from climate-related hazards,” it concluded.
