New Delhi: With hostilities between India and Pakistan at an all-time high following the Pahalgam terror attack, and New Delhi taking punitive actions against Islamabad — including the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty — a senior Chinese strategist has described it as an unprecedented challenge to regional stability.
Hu Shisheng, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), has said that it has not only unsettled Islamabad but has also cast a shadow over China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in South Asia. Shisheng has warned that India’s so-called “hydrological deterrence” is testing the resilience of critical infrastructure under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Could undermine years of Chinese investment
According to him, when floodwaters recently swept across the Karakorum Highway, an important artery constructed with Chinese participation, Beijing inadvertently received “an unexpected strategic assessment report” on the vulnerabilities of its investments. “Compared to border conflicts, it is precisely these non-traditional security threats that constitute the true Achilles’ heel of the Belt and Road Initiative projects,” Hu observed. He further suggested that water-related instability could undermine years of Chinese investment and regional influence.
While acknowledging that India’s strategy could impact Beijing’s interests, Hu Shisheng also argued that New Delhi’s control over only 20 per cent of the Indus River’s water flow, combined with its limited water storage capacity, diminishes the practical effectiveness of its water-based tactics. He noted that Pakistan’s downstream hydropower stations remain capable of managing the fluctuations, while climate change further erodes the efficacy of water manipulation. Shisheng characterised New Delhi’s actions as “more like a political performance aimed at its domestic audience” rather than a decisive strategic manoeuvre.
‘Dangerous escalation of geopolitical adventurism’
However, Shisheng expressed concern that India’s move to break the 62-year tacit understanding over water rights, which had underpinned a fragile regional balance, represents a dangerous escalation of geopolitical adventurism. “New Delhi is attempting to deflect domestic tensions by creating a ‘controllable crisis’. yet it has seriously underestimated the risks of a chain reaction,” he warned. He pointed specifically to CPEC-linked projects, such as the Kohala Hydropower Project and the Diamer-Bhasha Dam.
Despite these tensions, Hu emphasised that escalation is not in line with the Modi government’s primary strategic priorities. He argued that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foremost agenda is “national revitalisation through industrialisation” — capitalising on the “strategic window of opportunity” created by US tariffs on China to attract foreign investment, expand Indian manufacturing, and position India as a rising industrial powerhouse. “If regional instability continues, it will undermine investor confidence and force India to pay an unnecessary price,” Hu cautioned.
Adding a broader geopolitical layer, Hu noted that Bangladesh’s current turmoil and the deterioration of India-Bangladesh relations to historic lows, coupled with rapidly warming ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan, have left India “significantly constrained on both its eastern and western flanks”. Against this backdrop, he highlighted India’s efforts to engage with the Afghan Taliban regime, attempting to leverage Afghanistan as a key “chess piece” in balancing regional pressures.
