New Delhi: A group of scientists from the University of Chicago headed by Assistant Professor Da Yang has proposed a new equation that can help improve the prediction of atmospheric rivers by several times. These rivers are narrow ribbons of intense water with vapour produced by strong winds.
It is largely attributed to most of the severe rainfall and storms affecting coastal areas, including California’s Pineapple Express. This new mathematical model may help meteorologists better forecast when and where these massive systems will deliver those dangerous conditions, giving people a chance to prepare.
Understanding the Mechanisms of Atmospheric Rivers
At present, the models use integrated vapour transport (IVT) to monitor the event, which quantifies the mass and velocity of water vapour in the atmosphere. But Yang and his team were not satisfied with such functions of tracking and monitoring. In their study, which was published in Nature Communications recently, they suggested a governing equation that incorporates both water vapour and wind energy they called the integrated vapour kinetic energy (IVKE). This approach not only identifies the path of atmospheric rivers but also why they strengthen, diminish, and move towards the east. “The new equation can say what makes an atmospheric river stronger, what reduces it, and what shifts it,” said Yang.
Real-Time Forecasting with Insight from Power
The team’s research showed that the atmospheric rivers intensify when potential energy is converted to kinetic energy and that processes such as condensation and turbulence cause the atmospheric rivers to dissipate. They are driven eastward by the horizontal impartation of momentum and moisture in air streams. Such resolution helps scientists study the internal processes of atmospheric rivers, which will enhance the IVT measurements available in real-time and provide a physical depth. Such a comprehensive framework, Yang pointed out, could help augment NOAA’s IVT-based monitoring systems to offer more refined diagnostic tools for the weather models.
Climate change studies implication
Since climate change has a direct impact on the water vapour capacity of the atmosphere, it is especially important to learn how atmospheric rivers behave under these conditions. The new framework developed by Yang’s team will be used to analyse possible climatic effects, and postdoctoral researcher Aidi Zhang will investigate the connection between climate change and atmospheric rivers.
With this advance, Yang, who previously researched tropical convective storms, is eager to contribute to enhancing forecast and improving readiness for storms to coastal regions as well as add to the knowledge of the changing climate at the global level. The team’s research will help enhance not only the forecast accuracy of extreme weather systems but also the physical modelling of severe weather systems all over the globe.
