New Delhi: No state in the country has witnessed such hostile and aggressive political manoeuvring as the state of Maharashtra in the last five years (2019-2024). With allies becoming foes and foes becoming friends, vertical split in the two major parties of the state, and the rebel-leader with lesser MLAs becoming the chief minister, Maharashtra politics has seen some stirring times.
However, all these new ties and rebellions are heading towards the testing times now with the Maharashtra assembly elections scheduled for November 20. While the ruling Mahayuti (BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) have had their first round of bout in the Lok Sabha elections in which MVA emerged better off Mahayuti, the real battle for the throne of Maharashtra has just begun.
Not only will the November 23 result decide the new power structure in the state, it will also decide the future of many stalwarts of Maharashtra politics. Especially the future of the four leaders, two each on the opposite ends of Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party.
For it is not only political, but also personal between the Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde and Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Uddhav Thackeray; and NCP’s Ajit Pawar and NCP (SP)’s Sharad Pawar. While the two factions of Shiv Sena performed equally good or bad in the Lok Sabha elections by winning 9 (Shiv Sena-UBT) and 7 (Shiv Sena) seats, Sharad Pawar was the clear winner against Ajit Pawar’s NCP.
The senior Pawar’s party won 8 of the 10 seats it contested, Ajit’s party could only win one seat out of the four it contested. As a result of this below par performance, Ajit was branded as the weak link in Mahayuti with voices from some quarters of the saffron camp calling to get rid of him. Ajit Pawar today is under immense pressure to perform. The same is true for Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray. After Shinde rebelled against Uddhav and replaced him as the chief minister in July 2022, the former Shiv Sena chief is itching to teach him a life lesson in politics.
However, if Eknath Shinde goes any lower than the 40 MLAs he currently holds, he might not only lose the bargaining power to become the CM again but Mahayuti might also fail to form the government. Lots is at stake for him here. Meanwhile, it will be a sweet revenge for Uddhav if he gets to replace Shinde as the CM after the polls. But that is for later.
Uddhav Thackeray versus Ekanth Shinde
CM Eknath Shinde’s Sena and his predecessor Uddhav’s Sena are set to lock horns on at least 53 of the 288 constituencies in the state. Out of these 53, 44 are sitting MLAs in one of the two factions of Shiv Sena but were elected in 2019 under the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray. The Shiv Sena contested the 2019 assembly elections in alliance with the BJP and won 56 seats.
However, when Eknath Shinde engineered the vertical split in the party, 41 MLAs sided with him. While CM Shinde claims that he only honoured the wish of the majority of MLAs to part ways from the government supported by Congress, the Uddhav’s faction believes that now is the time for the “people of Maharashtra to teach the traitors who stole our party and symbol”.
Two of the major battles between two Shiv Sena will be seen on Kopri-Pachpakhadi and Worli. In Kopri-Pachpakhadi, CM Shinde is facing Kedar Dighe of Uddhav’s Sena. Kedar is the nephew of Shinde’s mentor and former Shiv Sena leader Anand Dighe, a close associate of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray. In Worli, Shinde has tried to corner Uddha’s son Aaditya Thackeray by fielding former union minister Milind Deora.
The outcome of these 53 seats will go a long way in establishing the authority of either Shinde or Uddhav in the state politics for a long time to come.
Sharad Pawar versus Ajit Pawar
Similar on the lines of two factions of Shiv Sena, an identical struggle is playing out between the two factions of the NCP, one led by veteran Maratha leader Sharad Pawar and the other led by his nephew Ajit Pawar. The two factions are in direct fight against each other on 36 seats across the state. Of the 53 MLAs that the united NCP had won in 2019, 40 had decided to follow Ajit Pawar in the July 2023 rebellion. Of these 40, 36 will be up against the NCP
candidate from Sharad Pawar’s faction. For Sharad Pawar, the rebellion by Ajit Pawar, only to become Deputy CM, was more personal than in the case of Shinde and Uddhav. For, not only was Ajit a family, but was handpicked by Sharad Pawar to follow him in politics. He was a natural heir to Sharad, but perhaps, a bit impatient.
Although old and frail, the veteran leader is now strategizing and travelling across the state to consolidate his influence in the party’s core area of Marathwada and western Maharashtra. Meanwhile, he is also trying to corner Ajit in Baramati after fielding his great- nephew (son of Ajit’s brother Shriniwas) Yugendra Pawar against him.
